Predicting how well the LEGO BrickLink Series 9 sets will sell

Crowdfunding for Series 8 of the LEGO BrickLink Designer Program is over, and the sales numbers offer insight as to how the selection in Series 9 will perform.

Pre-orders for Series 9 of the BrickLink Designer Program open on October 7 for a limited time, and when the dust settles, these sets will join the list of sales numbers for every series of the BrickLink Designer Program. That data is listed below, and it's clear to see which kinds of models perform best.

Builds within an existing popular category, such as Castle, Pirates or trains, tend to perform better than something more unique. Series 9 has a healthy mix of both, and we're going to predict how well the upcoming sets will perform, based on this data.

Wild West Blacksmith

Wild West projects have become rare, but not impossible in the BrickLink Designer Program, and the range will expand soon with the Wild West Blacksmith. The previous LEGO Wild West submissions in the program include 910055 Gold Mine Expedition at 17,161 copies crowdfunded, 910031 General Store at 24,964 copies and 910044 Wild West Train at 32,636 copies.

910044 Wild West Train is an outlier since it combines trains and western into one project. Instead, the Wild West Blacksmith will likely sell just a bit better than 910031 General Store. Since that model is from Series 1, expect it to sell substantially better.

We're estimating around 27,000 copies to be crowdfunded later this year, performing better than 910031 General Store, but still not selling out.

The Fisherman's Village

The Fisherman's Village is the biggest project in Series 9 at 3,995 elements, depicting an idyllic fishing town with a few buildings, a lighthouse and a boat. There's no exact match for this build in the history of the BrickLink Designer Program, but 910040 Harbormaster's Office did manage to get 29,550 copies crowdfunded.

That suggests a good level of interest in harbour builds, but huge models not based on Castle don't traditionally perform as well as the fortresses. With this in mind, we'd put the final sales numbers for The Fisherman's Village around 23,000 copies.

That acknowledges renewed interest in the program, the appeal of this subject matter, as well as the limiting factor that will be the inevitably high price tag.

Sleepy Dragon Inn

While the Sleepy Dragon Inn is only Castle-adjacent in that it is a fantasy setting, the minifigures and likeness to both 21325 Medieval Blacksmith and 910062 Alchemist's Shop forecast it to be a major hit in Series 9.

Castle projects consistently do well in the BrickLink Designer Program, even when they don't include a fortress. 910062 Alchemist's Shop, for example, sold a whopping 41,000 copies. This gives us a foundation to work from. The BrickLink Designer Program has grown more popular over time, but 910062 Alchemist's Shop is only from one series back.

With all of this in mind, we're predicting that the Sleepy Dragon Inn will see around 41,500 copies crowdfunded later this year.

Pumpkin Patch

The Pumpkin Patch in Series 9 is a particularly small model for the BrickLink Designer Program, and those have had a mixed track record. Some, such as 910041 Camping Adventure and 910030 Snack Shack, have done incredibly well at over 30,000 copies. Others, like 910063 W.A.L.T., have not performed as admirably at 16,800 pre-orders.

They have all still done fairly well, though. The combination of an affordable price tag and the limited-edition nature of them means fans can easily find an excuse to add them to their pre-orders. As far as the subject goes, Pumpkin Patch is closest to 910041 Camping Adventure, but there's no true counterpart to this build.

While that makes the task of predicting the sales numbers more difficult, we'd guess that Pumpkin Patch will easily clear 15,000 pre-orders, maybe reaching around 18,000 in total.

WOODBRICK FREIGHT DEPOT

Trains have always done reasonably well in the BrickLink Designer Program. This includes 910044 Wild West Train at 32,636 copies, 910034 Brick Cross Train Station at 32,000 pre-orders, 910033 Old Train Engine Shed at 31,500 copies, 910066 Brick with Railroad Locomotive with 24,752 crowdfunded sets, and 910035 Logging Railway at 11,778 models.

910035 Logging Railway is certainly the outlier, and it's clear to see that trains, especially when it's just a building or location to support them, do well in the BrickLink Designer Program. WOODBRICKS FREIGHT DEPOT falls under the latter and is something that we haven't seen for quite a while in the LEGO portfolio.

Considering this, expect WOODBRICKS FREIGHT DEPOT to get to at least 30,000 pre-orders in Series 9.