Rumoured LEGO The Lord of the Rings set number suggests it won’t be a full theme

The set number supposedly attached to next year’s rumoured LEGO The Lord of the Rings set suggests we definitely won’t be seeing a full return to Middle-earth.


Rumours of a $500 direct-to-consumer set based on the original Lord of the Rings trilogy (rather than Amazon’s The Rings of Power series) have been circulating for a while, but a recent listing through a Canadian retailer has prompted speculation that it could be arriving in March, numbered 10316. That would slot it neatly into the LEGO Icons series, following the likes of 10307 Eiffel Tower.

If that really is the set number for this giant Lord of the Rings set, though, it suggests it’ll very much be a one-off within the wider LEGO portfolio. At the moment, the only other rumoured sets based on the adventures of Frodo, Aragorn, Gandalf and co. are said to be BrickHeadz double packs, casting doubt over a wider return of the LEGO The Lord of the Rings theme.

And if the supposed $500 set really is numbered 10316, it doesn’t look like the LEGO Group is planning for a fully-fledged resurgence of LEGO Middle-earth any time soon, either. Every LEGO theme has its own specific product number sequencing – Star Wars is 75XXX, Super Heroes is 76XXX, NINJAGO is 71XXX and so on. Direct-to-consumer sets, like 75313 AT-AT and 76210 Hulkbuster, still fall within those sequences.

A model designed to herald a full relaunch of LEGO The Lord of the Rings theme would therefore surely have its own unique product numbering. Instead, the $500 set is expected to fall within the Icons range, where we’ve already seen plenty of other one-off licensed sets – from 10302 Optimus Prime to 10300 Back to the Future Time Machine.

This is all rumours and speculation at this point, of course: 10316 could end up being an entirely different $500 set (we’ve had more than one model surpass that price point in 2022, after all), while the Icons theme has previously been the home of series of licensed sets, such as the three football stadiums released between 2020 and 2022.

And while a wider relaunch of LEGO The Lord of the Rings might not be on the cards for 2023, there’s nothing to say the success of a huge flagship model couldn’t pave the way for more further down the line – whether as its own full theme or simply under the banner of LEGO Icons. If it’s the latter, though, it’ll probably mean only a handful of giant and expensive sets, rather than smaller, accessible models.

For now, take everything here with the requisite pinch of salt reserved for rumours – including the table below, which rounds up all the LEGO The Lord of the Rings sets currently rumoured for 2023.

Set namePricePiecesRelease date
40630 Frodo and Gollum€14.99TBCJanuary 2023
40631 Balrog and Gandalf€14.99TBCJanuary 2023
40632 Aragorn and ArwenTBCTBCJanuary 2023
10316 [D2C]~$500TBCMarch 2023

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Chris Wharfe

I like to think of myself as a journalist first, LEGO fan second, but we all know that’s not really the case. Journalism does run through my veins, though, like some kind of weird literary blood – the sort that will no doubt one day lead to a stress-induced heart malfunction. It’s like smoking, only worse. Thankfully, I get to write about LEGO until then. You can follow me on Twitter at @brfa_chris.

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