LEGO may be starting to shift towards cheaper 18+ sets in 2024

As rumours and listings of next year’s LEGO line-up start to emerge, all signs are that the LEGO Group is beginning to shift towards smaller and cheaper 18+ sets in 2024.

It feels like a new £100+ LEGO set lands on shelves pretty much every month at the moment, with most of the company’s major themes boasting sets above the £300 mark. And while those are certainly still on the table, early whispers of the late 2023 and early 2024 portfolio suggest the LEGO Group may be expanding its remit to encompass smaller and cheaper sets for adults, too.

Take this year’s LEGO Super Mario 18+ set, for example, which is said to be 71426 Piranha Plant. That build is reported to consist of just 540 pieces and retail for only $64.99 when it launches in November – a far cry from the theme’s previous three direct-to-consumer sets, 71374 Nintendo Entertainment System, 71395 Super Mario 64 Question Mark Block and 71411 The Mighty Bowser.

On its own, that smaller and cheaper 18+ set (if it indeed materialises as rumoured) would be an abnormality. But across the past week, listings for and rumours of more than 140 different LEGO 2024 sets have surfaced online – and among them are more clues to the LEGO Group’s broader strategy in the months ahead.

The four LEGO Icons sets currently listed for 2024, for instance, top out at €79.99 for 10330. We don’t yet have any indication of what those Icons sets could be – at least two are likely to belong to the Botanical Collection – but it’s already twice as many sub-€100 sets as we’ve seen from the 18+ theme in 2023. Only 10313 Wildflower Bouquet and 10314 Dried Flower Centrepiece have proven so cost-effective this year.

Over in the Wizarding World, the LEGO Harry Potter theme looks to be embracing the same strategy as Super Mario, pivoting away from expensive 18+ sets and towards a more affordable option. 76429 is said to be branded as ‘for adults’, but only includes 561 pieces – and is due to retail for just €99.99. That price-per-piece disparity is alarming, but that set could really be anything, so best to reserve judgement until it’s revealed.

And either way, it’s well below the asking price (and piece count) of the theme’s other direct-to-consumer sets: 71043 Hogwarts Castle, 75978 Diagon Alley, 76391 Hogwarts Icons Collectors’ Edition, 76405 Hogwarts Express Collectors’ Edition and 76417 Gringotts Wizarding Bank Collectors’ Edition. All five carry price tags between €299.99 and €499.99, so anyone seeking the ultimate LEGO Harry Potter experience has historically needed to dig deep – but that might not be the case for long.

While we don’t know the reasons behind any such shift (if indeed that is what’s happening), it’s hard not to notice that much of the world is still gripped in a cost of living crisis. Just how much impact this might have had on the LEGO Group’s sales will only be known once it announces its financial results for the past six to 12 months, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a slowdown in growth.

There’s one more iron in the fire to suggest the LEGO Group may be realising the market for vast 18+ sets isn’t quite as big as it once was: according to the rumour mill, we won’t be getting a flagship LEGO Icons set in 2023 on the same level as 10276 Colosseum, 10294 Titanic and 10307 Eiffel Tower. On the other hand, November supposedly will see the launch of a $525 Avengers Tower, so the LEGO Group clearly isn’t done with its expensive 18+ sets altogether.

In fact, what these reports and rumours may actually signal is simply a broadening of the LEGO Group’s adult market. There are a handful of 18+ sets currently available for double figures, mostly from the Botanical Collection, Ideas and Star Wars, but seeing more and more themes pivot to include these cheaper display sets – whether in addition to their higher-priced models or in place of them – will be welcomed by those of us bleeding both budget and space.

While most of the information on 2024 sets in this story has come from reliable sources, including price comparison site brickmerge.de, any confirmation of future products can only come from the LEGO Group. So… don’t get your hopes up too high just yet, essentially.

Support the work that Brick Fanatics does by purchasing your LEGO using our affiliate links.